What a fitting way to end the 10 year tenure of the ten year 4 team CFP. So much anticipation and drama filled this season, and this past conference championship weekend was a must watch. Along with great games came huge controversy, as trying to fit 5 conference winners in 4 spots is not an easy decision. This year is the perfect argument for why the 12 team playoff will greatly improve college football. However the process for selecting these teams is complex and not straightforward, causing confusion for fans just joining the action. In this article I’ll try to explain the picks, and give my reactions.
Let's first look at what the committee says the criteria is. The goal is to pick the 4 BEST teams in the country, not the 4 most deserving. So how does the committee choose the 4 best teams? The committee uses record, strength of schedule, conference championships and “the eye test” to determine the 4 best teams. Most of these are straightforward, but “the eye test” can get confusing. If you go undefeated, win your power five conference, and win a big game against an out of conference opponent you should get in, right? Well… we have a lot to discuss.
Michigan
The decision for Michigan was easy. In 2023 Michigan went 13-0 with a commanding victory over Iowa in the Big 10 championship. So the record and conference championship is there. Michigan had wins against both Penn State and for a third time in a row Ohio State, giving the Wolverines a checkmark for strength of schedule. Lastly “the eye test” checks out as Michigan has been dominant all season with huge wins over ranked teams proving that they are one of the 4 best teams in the nation.
Washington
After defeating Oregon previously in the season, the formula for Washington was simple. Win and you're in. In a thrilling rematch of this Pac-12 rivalry, Penix balled out leading the Huskies to a perfect season and securing a spot in the CFP. Like Michigan the undefeated record and conference championship is checked off. Washington beat Oregon, a top 8 team, twice proving that they can compete against good teams. Lastly, although Washington did look shaky in the latter half of the year, their win against the strong Ducks team highlighted that they were legit, and deserving of a CFP berth.
Picking the teams for the CFP sounds easy right? Well this is where it starts to get challenging. Here are the cases for the next 2 spots.
Florida State finished 13-0 with an ACC Championship victory. Key wins: LSU, Louisville
Texas finished 12-1 with a Big-12 Championship victory. Key Wins: Alabama, Kansas State.
Alabama finished 12-1 with a SEC Championship victory. Key Wins: Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss.
In theory this should be simple, Florida State gets in because they have the best record and won their Power 5 conference. And Texas gets in because of their head to head over Alabama. So what's the confusion?
This is where the “eye test" comes into play. Florida State lost their Star Quarterback Jordan Travis in a game late in the season to a broken leg. Despite this their playoff hopes were not spoiled, as backup qb Tade Rodemaker could show promise in the following games. However this offense was just not the same at all. The ACC championship game was a tough watch, I mean even the average fan could tell that this FSU team was not legit. Even with Jordan Travis I still don’t think that the Seminoles were as good as their record. Despite their win over LSU in the first week, they barely beat teams like Boston College and Clemson.
The main argument against leaving FSU out is that you can't value the health of a player over the wins they have. If Jordan Travis got hurt in the championship game vs Louisville, then the Seminoles would be let in. But we saw a big sample size of play without him under the helm. This team is just not the same at all, and the committee had enough film to analyze this.
Last year the committee put a 12-1 TCU in the CFP over a 10-2 Alabama. TCU definitely deserved to be in, but they were not one of the four best teams. We witnessed the worst championship game when Georgia beat tcu 65-7. The committee knew that something like this should not happen again.
Adding FSU without Jordan Travis would be giving one of the teams a free win. They could get away with beating teams like Florida and Louisville, but they would be no match against any of the top four. I definitely feel for the FSU players and fans. They did everything they could, they went perfect. But unfortunately they are not one of the best teams, and we will see this in full effect when Georgia lets off steam in their bowl game.
Texas
Texas is making their first appearance in the CFP. With a healthy Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns had something to prove this year. Texas went 12-1 this year with a Big-12 championship victory. Texas did suffer a tough loss to Oklahoma, but they had an enormous win over Alabama on the road. This out of conference road win was the second best win in the country (behind Alabama’s win over Georgia) which overshadowed the loss to Oklahoma. So the record, conference championship, and strong wins are all there. Lastly, this Texas team passes the “eye test” by huge margins. This high powered offense and disciplined defense has dominated teams over the past few weeks, and the Longhorns are definitely one of the best four teams in the nation.
Alabama
Lastly we have Alabama. Is it really a CFP without an SEC team? Despite a shaky start to the season Nick Saban got things together, and the Tide sure are rolling (I predicted this in September). Let's look at how Bama was put in despite 1 loss. The Tide finished 12-1 after defeating the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC championship. So the record and championship are there. But why did Bama get put in over FSU despite having a worse record? Well there are two reasons in my opinion why. We already talked about how FSU didn’t pass the “eye test”. In the second half of the season Alabama definitely passes this test. Milroe has been playing out of his mind despite being benched in the third week. And that defense is special, reminds me of the 2015 squad. So just watching the two teams, Alabama is much better. But is that enough to negate an undefeated team. Well Alabama’s loss came to Texas who is ranked 3rd, so it was a “good” loss. Also Alabama has the 5th ranked strength of schedule, and they picked up massive wins against LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and even did the impossible, defeating the back to back champs in the SEC Championship. So Alabama checks off every box in this scenario. And coming back to the same point I made earlier about deserving vs best. FSU is the more deserving team, but Alabama is much better. We all saw how Michigan reacted when they saw they had to take on the Tide in the semifinals. That should be enough to say the committee made the right decision.
Overall I think that this is one of the best CFP playoffs ever, as every matchup will be a thrilling game. The committee made the right call, and I agree with all of their decisions.
However, it is a shame that great teams like FSU and Georgia have to be left out due to the 4 team restrictions. So the thing that is for certain, is that all CFB fans will be looking forward to the 12 team playoff next year. There you have it, my reactions to the CFP selections.